The Countercyclical Capital Buffer (CCyB) rate for the fourth quarter of 2023 remains unchanged at zero per cent

Summary

The Bank of Italy deems that the countercyclical capital buffer rate in force for the current quarter, equal to zero per cent, is appropriate in the current macrofinancial context.

In the second quarter of 2023, the credit-to-GDP ratio decreased. The deviation from the long-term trend of the total credit-to-GDP ratio was negative by about 13 percentage points, if calculated based on the methodology developed by the Bank of Italy. The bank credit-to-GDP ratio provides similar indications (Table 1 and Figures 1 and 2).

The growth in bank loans to the private sector was negative in the last quarter following the sharp contraction in lending to non-financial corporations (Figure 3). The NPL ratio remained at historically low levels for both households and firms (Figure 4); the unemployment rate decreased (Figure 5). Real residential property prices remained stable in the first quarter of this year (Figure 6).

The most recent developments in the international use of the CCyB, resulting from a discussion initiated by the Basel Committee, point to the possibility of introducing a positive capital buffer even under normal conditions, i.e. when cyclical risks are balanced (neither high nor low; the positive cycle-neutral CCyB). In line with this new approach, several countries have recently changed their national framework and activated a positive cycle-neutral CCyB.

In light of these developments, a comprehensive reassessment of the national methodological framework will be carried out in the coming months, in order to verify the adequacy of the methodology and indicators currently used.