Economic Bulletin No. 1, January 2017

Global growth improves but the outlook remains uncertain

Worldwide economic conditions have improved slightly, but the imposition and spread of restrictions on trade could have a negative impact. The rise in long-term yields in the United States has spread to the other advanced economies, but only to a limited degree owing to the divergence of monetary policies. The ECB Governing Council has extended its asset purchase programme until the end of December 2017, or beyond, if necessary.

Italy’s economy has recorded further moderate growth

The latest available indicators suggest that the recovery of the Italian economy proceeded in the autumn, though at a slow pace, driven by the revival of investment and the expansion of household expenditure. In the third quarter of 2016 total employment stabilized and both fixed-term and open-ended payroll jobs increased. In recent months lending to the non-financial private sector has continued to expand, albeit at a moderate pace, as has business lending.

The outlook is for continued growth

The projections indicate that the Italian economy will continue to grow over the next three years, driven by national demand and, from as early as this year, by the gradual strengthening of foreign demand. The forecasting scenario assumes that credit standards will remain relaxed and that Italy will press on with its reform agenda of recent years. The main factors of uncertainty, aside from financial conditions, stem from the global situation. Downside risks to the inflation projections instead come from trends in private sector wage growth.