Between 23 September and 22 October 2013 the branches of the Bank of Italy conducted the 21st business outlook survey, interviewing 4,235 firms with at least 20 workers, of which 2,990 industrial firms (excluding construction) and 1,245 non-financial private service firms. As in past years, the survey also covered a sample of 491 construction firms with at least 20 workers.
Main results
Firms in industry (excluding construction) and services
- six out of ten firms confirmed that their investment spending in 2013 was in line with the level planned at the end of the previous year; most of the other firms reported a decrease in their investment spending. The balance between firms reporting an increase in planned investment and those reporting a decrease was almost nil for firms exporting more than two thirds of their production
- in 2014 some 19 per cent of firms plan to increase their investment compared with this year, while 23 per cent plan a reduction; however, the largest firms tended to forecast an increase
- Industrial firms expect installed production capacity in Italy to rise above this year’s level in 2014
- in the first nine months of this year 43 per cent of firms reported a decrease in sales revenue compared with the same period in 2012, as against 27 per cent that reported an increase; if only export sales are considered, reports of an increase prevailed over those of a decrease
- the balance between firms reporting an increase in their demand for bank loans and those reporting a decrease was narrower than in the spring (down from 12.5 to 9.0 percentage points); going forward a further slowdown in the demand for credit is expected
- about 10 per cent of firms reported that they had claims on general government that stood to benefit from the measures introduced in 2013 to accelerate the payment of the amounts due; about 60 per cent of these firms reported that they had received at least partial payment in the last few months
- according to more than 50 per cent of the firms surveyed employment this year was stationary compared with 2012, although, as in that year, the balance between firms reporting an increase and those reporting a decrease was negative (-15.5 percentage points)
- some 55.1 per cent of firms expect to close the year with a profit, a slight improvement on the previous year
- according to exporting firms, the small contraction in the demand of euro-area countries in 2013 was more than offset by the large increase in that of the main emerging economies and the United States.
Construction firms
- 25 per cent of construction firms expected an increase in the value of their production in the second half of 2013, against 39 per cent that expected a decrease; the balance for larger firms was positive
- for 2013 as a whole, the balance between firms predicting a decrease in their activity compared with the previous year and those expecting an increase was more than 40 percentage points; looking ahead to 2014 the balance falls significantly, to 10 percentage points.
