The interviews for the Italian Housing Market Survey were carried out between 30 March 2015 and 27 April 2015. A total of 1,384 estate agents took part. Information was provided on house sales, rentals and prices in the reference quarter (January–March 2015) and on the outlook for the future.
Main Results
House Prices
In the first quarter of 2015, the proportion of estate agents reporting a fall in selling prices decreased to 59.3 per cent, from 67.7 per cent in the January survey, while the proportion reporting stable prices rose to 39.4 from 31.6 per cent. This trend, seen in every geographic region, was more pronounced in metropolitan areas where the negative balance between favourable and unfavourable expectations narrowed to -56.4 from -67.1 percentage points in the previous survey, compared to -58.6 points from -66.7 for non-metropolitan areas.
Sales
The proportion of estate agents that sold at least one property in the first quarter remained at the same level reported in the previous survey (69.6 per cent), higher than the same period in 2014 (64.0 per cent). There was continued improvement in the assessments of demand: the balance between respondents reporting an increase in potential buyers and those indicating a decrease rose to 5.5 percentage points, from -16.2 percentage points in the January survey. For the first time the survey recorded rent-to-buy contracts, the existence of which was reported by 4.4 per cent of estate agent, with a slightly higher number recorded in the North West (5.5 per cent).
Mandates to Sell
The balance between responses indicating an increase and a decrease in the stock of mandates rose slightly to 21.1 percentage points from 20.1 in January, possibly attributable to the rise in the balance of new mandates, reaching 17.9 percentage points from 15.5 in January. Estate agents were of the opinion that the principle cause of the loss of mandates continued to be the gap between the asking price and the offer price. There was a rise in the percentage of estate agents who reported that buyers’ offers were deemed too low by sellers (up to 58.2 per cent, from 53.0 in the last survey), while there was a decrease in the percentage of agents reporting that asking prices were deemed too high by potential buyers (58.5 per cent from 60.4 per cent). There was a continued decrease in the proportion of estate agencies that attributed the non-renewal of mandates to the difficulty of obtaining a mortgage (30.9 per cent, from 35.7).
Negotiations and selling times
The average discount on sellers’ initial asking price fell to 15 per cent from 16.1 per cent in January. The average time between the start of a mandate and the sale of the property increased slightly to 9.8 months from 9.5 months.
Financing house purchases
The proportion of house purchases financed by a mortgage loan increased sharply, rising to 65.2 per cent from 60.7 per cent in January. The loan-to-value ratio also went up to 64.2 per cent from 61.1 per cent.
Rentals
The percentage of estate agents that reported renting out at least one property in the first quarter of 2015 decreased slightly to 80 per cent from 81.1 per cent recorded in the previous report. At the same time, there was a decline in the proportion that reported a fall in rents, from 53.2 per cent in the January survey to 44.8 per cent, while those declaring rents were stable increased from 44.3 per cent to 52.1 per cent. The share of agents expecting rents to stay unchanged in the current quarter rose again, from 66.2 to 75.2 per cent, while 22.0 per cent forecast a decrease (against 31.5 per cent in the previous survey). The average margin for reductions on rental prices compared with the initial asking prices fell to 6.8 per cent from 7.5 per cent in January. The balance between replies indicating an increase and those indicating a decrease in new mandates to let amounted to -7.1 percentage points from -4.5 in the previous survey, while new mandates were reported to be stable by 64.1 per cent of agents compared to 59.3 in January.
Outlook for the agents’ own markets
Estate agents’ assessments on the short-term outlook for their own reference market improved markedly: the balance between positive and negative assessments for the current quarter moved into positive territory for the first time since the first quarter of 2011, from -7.4 percentage points in the previous survey to 9.1 percentage points. The balance of expectations regarding new mandates to sell decreased to 14.5 from 16.9 percentage points. The share of agents expecting prices to fall in the current quarter cut to 42.0 per cent, down from 58.7 per cent in the January survey, compared to a decisive increase in expectations that prices would hold stable (from 40.4 to 56.1 per cent).
Outlook for the national housing market
The balance of opinions regarding the short-term outlook for the national market narrowed sharply, to -2.7 percentage points from -23.0 points; the percentage of expectations of stability increased by nearly 10 percentage points, to 69.9 per cent. Expectations for the medium term (two years) are optimistic: the share of agents forecasting an improvement rose again, from 44.2 per cent in January to 50.6 per cent, while the share expecting a deterioration decreased from 22.4 to 16.2 per cent.
