Interviews for the Italian Housing Market Survey were conducted from 29 December 2014 to 30 January 2015. A total of 1,439 real-estate agents took part. The information provided concerned house sales and rentals, with their respective prices, for the reference quarter (October -December 2014) as well as the outlook for the future.
Main findings
House prices
The fourth quarter of 2014 saw a slight widening of the negative balance between the share of agents reporting an increase in selling prices and the share reporting a decrease, which went from -65.3 percentage points in the October survey to -66.8 points. The change was due to fewer agents declaring prices to be stable (down from 33.3 to 31.6 per cent). The tendency was evident in both urban and non-urban areas.
House Sales
Some 70.0 per cent of agents sold at least one house in the fourth quarter of 2014, up from 64.4 percent in the previous survey. Opinions regarding demand were less favourable, though: the negative balance between agents who reported an increase in potential buyers and those reporting a decrease narrowed to -16.2 percentage points, from -22.7 points in the previous survey.
Mandates to sell
The balance between an increase and a decrease in current mandates to sell narrowed from 28.4 percentage points to 20.1 points, as did the balance for new mandates (from 19.7 to 15.5 points). The withdrawal of mandates was again ascribed chiefly to the gap between price asked and price offered. A slightly larger percentage of agents reported a perception that prices were still too high (up from 58.0 per cent in the previous survey to 60.4 per cent), while the share of those who noted that offers were extremely low stayed at 53.0 per cent. The percentage of agents who attributed the loss of mandates to customers’ difficulties obtaining a mort gage fell from 37.3 to 35.7 per cent.
Negotiations and selling times
The average margin for reductions on the selling price compared with the seller’s initial asking price was unchanged at 16.1 per cent, though slightly lower in the North (15.8 per cent) than in the South and Islands (17.2 per cent). The average time between the start of the mandate to sell and the sale of the property was virtually unchanged at 9.5 months.
Financing house purchases
The share of house purchases financed with a mortgage loan edged up from 59.9 per cent in October to 60.7 per cent. The loan-to-value ratio for properties rose from 59.3 to 61.1 per cent.
Rentals
The percentage of agents reporting that they had let at least one property in the fourth quarter of 2014 was more or less stable at 81.1 per cent, compared with 80.7 per cent a year earlier. At the same time the percentage reporting a decline in rents rose from 52.6 per cent in the October survey to 53.2 per cent, while those declaring rents were stable decreased from 45.3 to 44.3 per cent. The share expecting rents to stay unchanged in the current quarter rose from 61.8 to 66.2 per cent, while 31.5 per cent forecast a decrease (against 37.1 per cent in the previous survey). The average margin for reductions on rental prices compared with the initial asking prices was again around 7.5 per cent. New mandates to let were reported to be stable by 59.3 per cent of agents. The balance between replies indicating an increase and those indicating a decrease, which was barely positive in October, amounted to -4.5 percentage points.
Outlook for the agents’ own markets
Agents became less pessimistic about the short-term outlook for their own reference market: the balance between positive and negative assessments improved to -7.4 percentage points, from -20.4 points in the previous survey. The balance of expectations regarding new mandates to sell increased from 16.0 to 16.9 percentage points. The share of agents expecting prices to fall in the current quarter was 58.7 per cent, down from 61.2 per cent in the October survey; this was due to an increase in expectations that prices would hold stable (from 38.4 to 40.4 per cent) and, to a lesser extent, in forecasts of arise in prices (from 0.3 to 0.9 per cent).
Outlook for the national housing market
The balance of opinions regarding the short-term outlook for the national market narrowed by almost 11 percentage points, from -33.7 to -23.0 points, and the percentage of expectations of stability increased by nearly 5 points, to 60.0 per cent. Expectations for the medium term (two years) are optimistic: the share of agents forecasting an improvement rose from 29.2 to 44.2 per cent, while the share expecting a deterioration decreased from 33.1 to 22.4 per cent.
