The interviews for the Italian Housing Market Survey were carried out between 27 September and 21 October 2013. A total of 1,398 estate agents took part. Information was provided on house sales, rentals and prices in the reference quarter (July-September 2013) and on the outlook for the future.
Main findings
House prices
The share of estate agents observing a decline in selling prices in respect of the previous quarter fell to 68.2 per cent compared with 76.8 per cent in the July survey, returning to the same level as in the first quarter of 2012. At the same time, the ratio of those who reported stable prices rose from 23.1 to 31.0 per cent. There were signs that the fall in prices was slowing in the regions of the North and Centre, while it remained stable in the South and Islands.
Sales
The share of estate agencies selling at least one property declined to 59.8 per cent from 63.6 per cent in July. This result reflected the sharp seasonal slump of the summer, despite being an improvement on the figure of 55.7 per cent recorded a year earlier.
Mandates to sell
The percentage balance between replies indicating an increase and those reporting a decrease in mandates to sell declined to 29.3 per cent from 32.1 per cent in the previous survey. By contrast, the balance between replies indicating an increase or a decrease in new mandates to sell rose slightly, from 18.3 to 19.4 percentage points.
The gap between asking and selling prices remained wide. A large share of agents again reported the main causes of the withdrawal of mandates to sell as a lack of offers owing to the perception the properties were over-priced (62.5 per cent) and a widespread opinion among sellers that offers were too low (52.6 per cent). The share of agents that attributed the withdrawal of mandates to difficulties in obtaining a mortgage on the part of prospective buyers declined to 45.4 per cent, similar to the level recorded in the last quarter of 2010.
Negotiations and selling times
The margin for reductions on the selling price in relation to the initial asking price remained at 15.7 per cent. However, the time continued to lengthen between the start of the mandate to sell and the sale of the property, reaching 9 months compared with the previous 8.8 months.
Financing house purchases
According to estate agents, the share of house purchases financed by a mortgage loan began to rise again in the third quarter, reaching 57.2 per cent against 55 per cent in the previous survey. The loan-to-value ratio of properties also showed a small increase, to 57.9 per cent from 55.8 in the July survey, which involved all areas of the country except the South and Islands.
Rentals
The share of agencies that rented at least one property in the third quarter was 81.2 per cent, against 80 per cent in the previous quarter. Of these, 57.2 per cent reported a fall in rents compared with the previous quarter, against 60.0 per cent in the July survey, while assessments that rents were stable increased from 37.9 to 40.3 per cent.
Outlook for the agents’ own markets
In October the negative balance between estate agents’ positive and negative assessments of the short-term trends for their reference markets decreased slightly, to –23.5 percentage points from –43.5 points in July, mainly because of the large reduction in the share of negative opinions (from 47.3 to 34 per cent) and increase from 3.8 to 10.5 per cent in that of positive assessments.
With reference to new mandates to sell, the balance of expectations rose to 16.2 per cent, against 6.1 per cent in the July survey, reflecting a rise in the number of agencies expecting an increase and decrease in those with a negative outlook. Assessments of price movements remained pessimistic, even if the negative balance between agencies expecting an increase in prices and those predicting a fall decreased further, to –63.9 percentage points from –68.7 points in the July survey. The share of agents expecting prices to remain stable continued to rise (to 35.1 from 31.0 per cent).
In the rental market, 60.1 per cent of agents expected rents to hold stable in the current quarter, against 56.2 per cent in the previous survey, while 38.4 per cent expected reductions, compared with 42.0 per cent in July.
Outlook for the national housing market
Although opinions on the short-term trends for the national housing market have improved considerably, they remain nonetheless highly pessimistic. The balance between positive and negative opinions fell to –36.4 percentage points from –53.3 points in the previous survey; this was due mainly to a decrease in the share of negative opinions.
The percentage balance between expectations of an improvement and a deterioration of the national market in the next two years became newly positive (5.6 percentage points), offsetting the decline recorded in the previous survey, when the balance stood at –5.5 points.
