The interviews for the survey covering the fourth quarter of 2011 were carried out between 3 and 24 January 2012. A total of 1,522 real-estate agents took part, providing information on sales and prices in the quarter and on the outlook for the sector.
Main Findings
House prices
The percentage of agents reporting a fall in housing prices during the fourth quarter rose to 66.5 per cent, compared with 51.2 per cent for the third quarter. Once again, extremely few respondents (under 1 per cent) reported a rise in prices. There was accordingly a further worsening in the negative balance between “up” and “down” answers, from 50.3 to 65.9 percentage points. The deterioration was sharpest in the South.
Number of completed sales
The share of agencies that sold at least one property during the fourth quarter rose to 72.1 per cent, from 65.5 per cent in the third quarter, presumably owing to seasonal factors, which are especially relevant during the summer months. By comparison with the fourth quarter of 2010, the share was down by about 3 percentage points. The quarterly increase was sharpest in the South (from 59.9 to 67.3 per cent) and the North-West (from 67.0 to 75.3 per cent).
Mandates to sell
The balance between answers indicating increase and decrease in the number of unsold properties still on estate agents’ books at the end of the quarter showed almost no change from the previous survey at 27.9 percentage points. The positive balance between agents reporting increases and decreases in new mandates to sell narrowed from 15.1 to 10.3 percentage points, owing mainly to trends outside urban areas.
As to the main causes for the termination of agency mandates, the number of agents who referred to potential buyers’ difficulty in procuring mortgage loans rose significantly, from 55.3 to 62.3 per cent. The share of agents reporting lack of offers due to too-high asking prices held at nearly two thirds (slipping just from 65.7 to 64.2 per cent).
Negotiations and selling times
In the fourth quarter of 2011 the average difference between the seller’s original asking price and the closing price widened to 13.7 per cent from 12.5 per cent in the third quarter. The widening was accounted for mostly by the change in urban areas (from 12.3 to 13.8 per cent). Average property selling times lengthened from 7.1 to 7.6 months.
Financing property purchases
The portion of house purchases financed by mortgage loans continued to decline, from 67.1 per cent in the third quarter to 63.7 per cent in the fourth. The decline was sharpest in urban areas, from 72.3 to 63.9 per cent.
Prospects for agents’ local markets
The balance between “favourable” and “unfavourable” assessments of the short-term outlook for the local market worsened sharply to a negative gap of 45.7 percentage points, from 22.3 points in the previous survey. The balance between forecasts of an increase and a decrease in the number of new mandates to sell remained positive but fell to 11.2 points, after rising temporarily in the third quarter. The share of agents expecting prices to decline over the coming months jumped from 50.8 to 68.0 per cent, while those expecting prices to hold stable fell sharply from 47.4 to 31.1 per cent.
Prospects for the national market
The share of estate agents reporting expectations of a deterioration in the national housing market in the short term soared to 61.0 per cent from 43.1 per cent in the previous survey. The negative balance between favourable and unfavourable assessments thus widened from 36.3 to 57.3 percentage points. Assessments for the next two years therefore also worsened, from a negative balance of 3.5 to one of 10.0 percentage points.
