No. 643 - External demand and export performance: regression residuals during the Covid-19 pandemic

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by Gloria Allione and Alberto FelettighOctober 2021

The performance of Italian goods exports in 2020 was shaped by the consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic. This study measures to what extent the sectoral peculiarities of the pandemic shock, both in terms of demand and of the selective suspension of economic activities during the March-April lockdown, contributed to these developments.

Between 2019 and 2020, the aggregate volume of manufacturing foreign sales declined more than the potential demand from Italy's outlet markets. We estimate that such gap is essentially due to the suspension of production activities during the lockdown. Thus, so far the pandemic has not significantly impaired the ability of Italian firms to safeguard their positions in international markets.