In the first half of 2009 economic activity continued to contract very rapidly; in the summer there were signs of recovery that were more pronounced in the regions of the Centre and North, which had seen the largest fall in demand in the previous half year. In the third quarter, after more than a year, seasonally-adjusted Italian GDP began to grow again, recording an increase of 0.6 per cent on the second quarter.
The survey carried out by the Bank of Italy in September-October on a sample of industrial and service firms shows a generalized downward revision in the first nine months of 2009 of the already modest investment plans reported at the beginning of the year. Despite considerable recourse to wage supplementation, in the first half of 2009 employment decreased, with by far the largest fall in the South and Islands.
The survey points to a gradual improvement in economic activity in the coming months, but the outlook nonetheless remains uncertain: the investment planned for 2010 is modest; employment is expected to go on falling. Corporate profitability declined sharply in 2009 in both industry and services, especially in the South and Islands; in the construction sector the largest contraction was in the North-East.
The slowdown in lending that began more than a year and a half ago continued at a comparable rate across the country: the annual growth rate of loans to firms fell virtually to zero in August, that of loans to households was three per cent in the Centre and North and slightly higher in the South and Islands. The riskiness of loans increased across the board and most significantly among firms in the Centre and North.
