The interviews for the survey covering the first quarter of 2012 were carried out between 30 March and 23 April 2012. A total of 1,527 real-estate agents took part, providing information on sales and prices in the quarter and on the outlook for the sector.
Main findings
House prices
The percentage of agents reporting a fall in house prices with respect to the previous quarter rose further to 69.1 per cent, compared with 66.5 per cent in the last survey. Once again, very few respondents (under 2 per cent) reported a rise in prices. Consequently, the negative balance between “up” and “down” answers increased further to 67.3 from 65.9 percentage points. The deterioration was concentrated in the South and in urban areas.
Number of completed sales
The share of agencies that sold at least one property during the first quarter declined from 69.3 to 63.8 per cent compared with a year earlier. The share was also lower than the 72.1 per cent recorded in the previous quarter. The quarter-on-quarter decline was sharpest in the North-West (from 75.3 to 64.8 per cent).
Mandates to sell
The balance between answers indicating increase and decrease in the number of unsold properties still on estate agents’books at the end of the quarter grew from 27.9 percentage points in the previous survey to 34.5 points. The balance between agents reporting increases and decreases in new mandates to sell also grew, from 10.3 to 28.2 percentage points; this pattern was nationwide.
As to the causes for the termination of agency mandates, the share of agents citing offers that sellers judged too low increased from 50.9 per cent in January to 53.1 per cent and the share reporting potential buyers’ difficulty in procuring mortgage loans rose from 62.3 to 63.8 per cent. The share citing lack of offers due to too-high asking prices remained above 60 per cent, although it slipped from 64.2 to 60.7 per cent.
Negotiations and time to sale
In the first quarter of 2012 the average difference between the seller’s original asking price and the closing price widened to 14.3 per cent, compared with 13.7 per cent in the previous survey and 12.5 per cent in the survey conducted in October 2011. The widening was accounted for mostly by the increase from 13.6 to 14.5 per cent recorded in non-urban areas. The average time to sale remained basically unchanged at just under 8 months.
Financing house purchases
The portion of house purchases financed by mortgage loans continued to decline, from 63.7 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2011 to 60.4 per cent in the first quarter of 2012. The decline was sharpest in non-urban areas (from 63.6 to 59.7 per cent).
Outlook for agents’ local markets
The balance between “favourable” and “unfavourable” assessments of the short-term (one-quarter-ahead) outlook for the local market improved, though it remained negative by a wide margin (39.8 percentage point, compared with 45.7 points in the previous survey). The change was due entirely to the reduction in the share of agents who expected a worsening. The balance between forecasts of an increase and a decrease in the number of new mandates to sell remained positive and rose to 23.1 percentage points from 11.2 points in the previous survey. Two thirds of the agents indicated that the recent real-estate tax measures will tend to increase the number of new mandates to sell and exert downward pressure on prices.
Outlook for the national market
The share of estate agents reporting expectations of a deterioration in the national housing market in the short term fell to 57.0 per cent from 61.0 per cent in the previous survey. The negative balance between favourable and unfavourable assessments thus narrowed from 57.3 to 54.4 percentage points. By contrast, assessments for the next two years grew slightly worse, the negative balance widening to 11.9 from 10.0 percentage points.
