No. 1450 - Energy price shocks, unemployment, and monetary policy

The ECB Consumer Expectations Survey shows that in the euro area there is significant heterogeneity between the employed and the unemployed in the share of consumption devoted to energy-intensive goods. Starting from this evidence, this paper studies the optimal conduct of monetary policy in response to a marked increase in energy prices through the lens of a heterogeneous-agent model with frictions in the labour market, in which the share of energy-intensive consumption is higher for the unemployed.

When energy prices increase, the unemployed tend to reduce their consumption more than the employed; it follows that, in the face of energy shocks, an increase in the share of people without a job determines a marked worsening of aggregate welfare. Therefore, the optimal monetary policy must be partially accommodative towards inflation, so as to contain the rise in the unemployment rate.

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