The interviews for the survey relating to the third quarter of 2012 were carried out between 1 October and 22 October. A total of 1,565 estate agents took part, providing information on sales and prices in the quarter July-September 2012 and on the general outlook for the sector.
Main findings
House prices
In the third quarter of 2012 the proportion of estate agents reporting a drop in house prices with respect to the previous quarter was virtually unchanged at 74.8 per cent. Assessments of a downward trend increased in the North East (79.3 per cent of agents, against 72.2 per cent in July), but diminished in the North West and the Centre. Once again, only a very small percentage of estate agents reported an increase in house prices in the quarter.
House sales
The percentage of estate agents who sold at least one property decreased to 55.7 per cent, 7 percentage points less than in the previous quarter and almost 10 points less than in the same quarter of 2011. The decrease was very evenly distributed across geographical areas and size of resident population.
Properties registered with estate agents
The balance between estate agents’ assessments indicating a rise and a fall, with respect to the previous quarter, in the number of unsold properties still on their books continued to widen during the summer, reaching 42.2 per cent against 40.8 per cent in the July survey. The increase concerned the North West and the Centre and was more pronounced in non-urban areas. Factors at play probably included greater difficulty selling properties already on the books. The balance between reports of a rise and reports of a fall in newly registered properties decreased by a little more than 2 percentage points, to 27.1 per cent.
As to the main reasons for contract cancellations, the percentage of agents citing “lack of offers due to too-high asking prices” was unchanged at about 64 per cent of the total, while the percentage of those citing “offers dismissed by sellers as too low” increased from 48.4 per cent in July to 49.9 per cent. There was a drop in the share of estate agents who attributed cancellation to the “the property being too long on the books” (22.6 per cent against 24.5 per cent), “awaiting an improvement in prices” (21.9 per cent against 22.9 per cent) and “buyer’s difficulty obtaining a mortgage” (57.9 per cent against 61.0 per cent).
Negotiations and selling times
In the third quarter of 2012 actual selling prices were 15.4 per cent below the seller’s asking prices, the same as in July, whereas it was 12.5 per cent a year earlier. Average property selling times were unchanged at 8.2 months (one month more than a year earlier), and were still 2 months longer in non-urban areas than in urban areas (about 9 and 7 months respectively).
Financing property purchases
The percentage of house purchases financed by taking out a mortgage fell to 59.6 per cent, against 64.7 per cent in the previous survey and 67.1 per cent a year earlier. The reduction occurred across all geographical areas but was more marked in non-urban areas (almost 10 percentage points more than in July).
The outlook for estate agents’ local markets
In October the balance between favourable and unfavourable assessments of the short-term outlook, which had deteriorated sharply in the July survey, showed some improvement but was still heavily negative (-41.6 per cent against -53.5 per cent). Only 7.4 per cent of estate agents expressed favourable expectations, while 49.0 per cent were pessimistic. The difference between forecasts of a rise and a fall in the number of newly registered properties is still positive, by 18.6 percentage points compared with 10.2 points in the previous survey. There was little change in expectations regarding short-term prices with respect to the markedly negative response in July: 70.6 per cent of estate agents forecast that they will drop (71.2 per cent in the previous survey) while very few continue to predict an increase. Expectations that prices will fall are more diffuse in non-urban areas and in the North East.
Compared with the previous survey, a larger percentage of estate agents believe the recent measures concerning property taxes to be a further cause of the slump in house sales (78.0 per cent against 75.6 per cent in July) and in prices (81.0 per cent compared with 77.0 per cent), while the percentage of those reporting that they boost the number of new property registrations decreased from 63.0 to 64.0 per cent. The share of estate agents reporting that the higher taxes helped to increase the number of rentals and properties to let rose to 56.1 per cent, from 51.4 per cent in July. Some 39.6 per cent (40.4 per cent in July) reported a negative effect on rent al costs, while 23 per cent reported a positive one.
The outlook for the national market
The short-term outlook for the national market has improved with respect to the severe deterioration recorded in the July survey, although the balances of opinions are still negative. The balance between expectations of an improvement and a deterioration in the present quarter has narrowed to -53.7 per cent (against -62.2 per cent in July), notably in the Centre and in urban areas. The outlook for the longer term (the next two years) is less pessimistic: the negative balance between expectations of an improvement and a deterioration is -11.4 percentage points, almost half what it was in the previous survey (-22 points).
