This study analyses the correlation between manufacturing firms' managers' opinions on foreign orders (a subcomponent of the PMI index sourced from Markit) and the performance of actual goods export in the four main euro-area countries. For Italy, further soft export indicators are appraised, namely those obtained from both Istat and Bank of Italy surveys.
We find evidence of a gradual reduction in the correlation between export orders measured through the PMI and actual export dynamics in the four countries since 2012. In Italy this disconnect has been particularly pronounced in the latest quarters and has also been evident for other soft indicators. This divergence could be due to recent factors common to the four countries, such as the marked increase in economic uncertainty and the growing role of intra-group transactions within multinational enterprises.
