No. 236 – Exploring flows to tax havens through means of a gravity model: evidence from Italy

We exploit a gravity model to study the main determinants of cross-border financial flows and to identify those flows that appear to be abnormally above the predicted value. Our data include all Italian cross-border bank transfers that took place between 2007 and 2010. We find that, other things being equal, financial flows to risky destinations are 36 per cent larger than in other countries. Using the residuals from our main econometric specification, we then construct an index of anomaly and find positive and statistically significant correlations between this and the rate of property and drugs-related crimes in the province of origin, and also between the index and other measures of foreign jurisdictions’ riskiness and opacity of legislation.