Survey on Inflation and Growth Expectations - 2019 Q1Statistics

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According to the survey conducted between 27 February and 20 March 2019 among Italian industrial and service firms with 50 or more employees, opinions regarding the current general economic situation remained negative overall, although less markedly than in the survey conducted in December. Firms' expectations of their own operating conditions in the short term, while unfavourable, improved somewhat, in part thanks to improved assessments of credit access conditions and the reduced uncertainty stemming from economic and political factors, although this uncertainty continues to be the main obstacle to their activity. Assessments of current demand worsened again for both the domestic and foreign components; short-term demand expectations instead began to improve again, mostly in foreign markets.

The balance between expectations of higher and lower nominal investment in 2019 compared with 2018 is positive, but lower than in the previous survey. Employment expectations are favourable in all sectors; in the construction sector the balance turned positive, reaching the highest value since surveys of the sector began in early 2013.

Consumer price inflation expectations were revised downwards over all time horizons in all the sectors, likely being affected by the reduction observed in the most recent official data. For the next 12 months, firms in industry excluding construction and in services expect slower growth of their own prices compared with that reported for the preceding 12 months, while firms in the construction sector predict a steady increase in their own prices.

chart Q1 - 2019

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